Opta Supercomputer predicts where Chelsea will now finish after Hull draw

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Chelsea failed to secure all three points against Hull City at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, and in fact, Xabi Alonso’s side were lucky to win a point. So, how does that affect their overall position?

We are now six games into the Alonso era. Chelsea fans have watched their side score an impressive 18 goals, averaging three a match, while conceding 12 goals and keeping one clean sheet against Luton.

DISCUSS: It’s time for Xabi Alonso to start Valentin Barco…

The stats simply DO NOT lie 👇

A statstical comparison showing the number of duels won by Chelsea FC midfielders Valentin Barco and Romeo Lavia vs Hull City.
Credit: Photo by Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images/Photo by Catherine Ivill – AMA/Getty Images

Chelsea currently sit in fifth position with seven points from four games, having beaten Fulham and then Brighton, losing to Arsenal and drawing with Hull. This is a Hull side that remains unbeaten this term.

Morgan Rogers and Joao Pedro’s goals were the first conceded by Hull so far. But it was a frustrating result for Alonso, especially as he told Malo Gusto to push up before Hull’s first goal on Saturday.

Opta Supercomputer’s prediction for Chelsea after four games

Now four games into a 38-game season, Chelsea sit in fifth. Come the end of the season, it would be enough to secure Champions League football, just. But where does Opta predict Chelsea will finish?

Xabi Alonso, Manager of Chelsea
Photo by Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images

Despite the draw against Hull, Opta thinks Chelsea will finish in fourth position. The Supercomputer says Liverpool will improve and achieve third place, while Arsenal will pip Man City to the title by five points.

Indeed, it claims Chelsea will win a total of 57.55 points, while there is a 1.93% chance of winning the Premier League trophy. Especially with City and Arsenal both winning all four of their league games.

What are Chelsea’s chances of Champions League qualification?

It might not have been made official, but it is quite clear that if Chelsea fans are to deem Alonso’s first season as a success, it will be based on whether Alonso can secure a place in the Champions League.

Dropped points against Hull… Does Xabi Alonso need to make some serious changes?

Who would you drop from today’s XI?

A graphic showing Chelsea's player ratings against Hull City following their Premier League game on 12/09/2026.

Opta says there is a 30% chance, and while that does not seem like much, it is higher than the likes of Man United, Newcastle and Aston Villa. A long way to go, though, with plenty of work to be done.

It is not dissimilar to the pre-season predictions from Opta, with Chelsea’s work in the summer window clearly doing enough to convince many that Alonso will guide the Blues back into the European elite.

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