Why Chelsea are more likely to be Premier League title contenders without Enzo Fernandez
With under two weeks left in the window, Enzo Fernandez is closer to leaving Chelsea than he has ever been. But below, we analyse why Chelsea have a better chance of a title challenge without him.
There have already been a few season-long predictions in the punditry world. The Athletic’s writers say the Blues will finish in third place under Xabi Alonso, which is an enormous success for his first season.
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Fans are hopeful that having failed to qualify for Europe, Chelsea will benefit from a full week’s rest in between matches. Chelsea get their campaign underway on Monday night, as they travel to Fulham.
But they could well do so without Enzo Fernandez. The Blues ace remains a key target for Man City, who have now sold Rodri to Barcelona and a deal for Tijjani Reijnders to Al Qadsiyah is close to being done.
Chelsea have a better chance without Fernandez – the stats
While City missed Chelsea’s deadline last Friday, Enzo Maresca’s side are expected to make a move for the midfielder. Chelsea might increase their asking price, but City now have the finances to do a deal.
Jorge Mendes has been drafted in, and reports say Chelsea remain open to his sale if their price tag is met. Obviously, Fernandez is one of the best midfielders in the Premier League; fans want him to stay.
But some simply want the saga over. However, there is a growing consensus that the Blues might be better off without Fernandez ahead of the new season, and the stats prove that hypothesis is a fact.
Indeed, since Fernandez joined in January 2023, Chelsea have played 132 Premier League games. In that time, Fernandez has played 118 times, missing only 14 – 10 of which were due to hernia surgery in 24-25.
Chelsea Premier League Record (Jan 31, 2023 – May 2026)
| Metric | With Enzo Fernández (118 Games) | Without Enzo Fernández (14 Games) |
| Matches | 118 | 14 |
| Wins | 45 | 9 |
| Draws | 33 | 3 |
| Losses | 40 | 2 |
| Goals For / Against | 183 / 169 | 33 / 15 |
| Win Percentage | 38.1% | 64.3% |
| Points Per Game (PPG) | 1.42 | 2.14 |
Chelsea are a better side without Enzo Fernandez…
The stats are remarkable. For many, Fernandez is Chelsea’s biggest star; they have plenty of reason to think that. But the stats cannot be ignored; Chelsea have a 26% better chance of winning without him.
Of course, the main caveat against these stats are that Chelsea have only played 14 Premier League games without Fernandez during his time in West London. A Fernandez-less Chelsea is still an unknown.
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But if Chelsea can average 2.14 points per game next season having sold Fernandez, they will not only be ÂŁ120m richer, they will have accrued over 80 points. That is certainly enough for a title challenge.
If Chelsea can finish in the top five and win a Champions League place ahead of 2027-28, then it is a giant success. But Blues fans are dreaming beyond that. First of all, Chelsea need to beat Fulham away.
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